2006 , Volume 11, Special issue, p.143-150

For a given local area of size 10 x 10 of degrees of the Northern hemisphere with use of a method of dynamic probabilistic modeling and six-hour spatial - temporal data of the reanalysis for 1948-2005 a climatic ensemble of spatial - temporal realizations of fields of an meteoelements is constructed. The realizations of the ensemble are solutions of the appropriate numerical model of hydrothermodynamics of the atmosphere and have a correlation matrix close to the correlation matrix estimated by the reanalysis data within the solving of the appropriate variational assimilation problem. Using a definition of a climatic trajectory of atmospheric movements, emission of concrete realizations of trajectories by limits of the climatic trajectory are investigated. These trajectories by are naturally determined by appropriate realizations from the climatic ensemble on the basis of solving of the semi-Lagrangian transport model and the method of detector functions.