2006 , Volume 11, Special issue, p.29-38

The regional climate warming and its dependence on adopted scenarios of greenhouse gases increases are discussed in the study. The sources of errors in evaluation of climate change, such as hypotheses on radiative forcing and inadequate description of physical processes in climate models are also considered. Expected changes of climate in Russia during 21st century, as simulated by the new generation of IPCC AOGCM ensemble of models are analyzed. Particular attention was given to changes of surface air temperature, precipitation, runoff, soil moisture and some other variables on regional scale in relation to climate of the end of the 20th century. Statistical significance of changes is also evaluated. In conclusion some thoughts on needs of the further refinement of the regional climate evaluation are discussed that aimed at long-term adaptation measures to expected climate changes in Russian Federation.