2023 , Volume 28, № 6, p.17-36

The article considers the problem of assessing the capacity of the Ulaanbaatar Railway, which is a part of the shortest transport corridor from Central Russia to Northeast China. In its current state, Mongolian railways cannot satisfy the growing demand for transit traffic, so the problem of increasing their capacity is essential. To find ways of solving this problem, we analyze the running of trains along the northern (most loaded) part of the trunk railway. Mathematical modelling based on the queuing theory is used as a research tool. The model has the form of a queuing network with 40 nodes, four BMAP flows, and four types of requests, for each of which a separate route matrix is constructed. The model describes the most significant properties of the Ulaanbaatar railway for the study, such as a single-track system of running, the arrival of train packages from several directions, the non-linear structure of the network, and the different routes of the train traffic. The mathematical model is implemented in the form of a simulation model and numerically studied. Based on the results obtained, we can draw the following conclusions. First, to meet the demand for container transportation in the short term, it is enough to increase the number of tracks at the sidings. Secondly, the complete reconstruction of the Ulaanbaatar Railway with the construction of double- track lines will allow bringing the railway corridor for passing through the territory of Mongolia. The major outcome is expected to be the volume of container transit among all land transport corridors between Russia and China. In addition to solving the important practical problem, the research results suggest that the presented highly adaptive model-algorithmic apparatus allows to studying a wide range of transport systems affected by random factors.