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Article information
2022 , Volume 27, ¹ 3, p.112-124
Moskvichev V.V., Postnikova U.S., Taseiko O.V.
Cluster analysis in the assessment of territorial risks for social-natural-technogenic systems
Intensive use of natural and technological resources, desire for economic growth without appropriate scientific justification leads to increased risks of development of territorial entities, especially with an increase in the concentration of hazardous industrial production without a proper analysis of their impact on the security of the territory. The paper proposes a methodological approach for determining and assessing the normative level of the complex territorial technogenic risk of municipalities and subjects of the Siberian Federal District (SFD). The analysis of the territories of the SFD should be carried out separately for different types of administrative-territorial units: cities with a population of over 70 thousand people, cities with a population of less than 70 thousand people and municipal districts. A methodical approach based on the methods of multivariate statistics allows determining the acceptable level of risk for each considered territorial group. The paper proposes using the method of hierarchical cluster analysis, which allows dividing the territories of the SFD into groups of clusters, choosing a reference group with which a comparison will be made, followed by determining an acceptable level of risk. Based on the hierarchical cluster analysis and the subsequent comprehensive assessment of the technological territorial risk, the territories of the SFD were ranked according to the level of technological hazard (highly dangerous, increased danger, safe). Acceptable risk levels have been established for each group of cities. Based on GIS technologies, risk map of municipalities of the Siberian Federal District has been built. A comprehensive assessment of the risks of territorial development ensures better management and sustainable development with the minimization of man-made risks in the face of an increase in anthropogenic load, hazards to life and health of the population and reduces the cost of eliminating the consequences of accidents and catastrophes.
[full text] [link to elibrary.ru]
Keywords: social-natural-technogenic system, territorial technogenic risk, hierarchical cluster analysis
doi: 10.25743/ICT.2022.27.3.009
Author(s):
Moskvichev Vladimir Viktorovich
Dr. , Professor
Position: Director
Office: Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies,Siberian Federal University
Address: 660049, Russia, Krasnoyarsk, Mira pr., 53
Phone Office: (391) 227-29-12
E-mail: krasn@ict.nsc.ru
SPIN-code: 9332-6468Postnikova Ulyana Sergeevna
PhD.
Position: Senior Fellow
Office: Reshetnev Siberian State University of Science and Technology,Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies
Address: 660037, Russia, Krasnoyarsk, Office L-409, 410, 31, Krasnoyarsky Rabochy Av.
Phone Office: (923)-281-94-64
E-mail: ulyana-ivanova@inbox.ru
SPIN-code: 5790-6393Taseiko Olga Viktorovna
PhD. , Associate Professor
Position: Head of Chair
Office: Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies, Reshetnev Siberian State University of Science and Technology
Address: 660037, Russia, Krasnoyarsk, Office L-409, 410, 31, Krasnoyarsky Rabochy Av.
Phone Office: (923)-280-52-10
E-mail: taseiko@gmail.com
SPIN-code: 4032-4299 References:
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Bibliography link:
Moskvichev V.V., Postnikova U.S., Taseiko O.V. Cluster analysis in the assessment of territorial risks for social-natural-technogenic systems // Computational technologies. 2022. V. 27. ¹ 3. P. 112-124
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