|
Article information
2020 , Volume 25, ¹ 3, p.54-65
Grechkoseev A.K., Tolstikov A.S., Tissen V.M., Karmanov V.S., Vaganova A.I.
The modification of the singular spectral analysis basic method for improving the accuracy of forecasting the irregularity of the Earth rotation
Growing demand for accuracy of coordinate-time determinations from both many applied Earth sciences and practical problems requires the continuous improvement of means and methods for determining and predicting the parameters of the Earth rotation. Parameter “World time” characterizes phase of the Earth’s rotation and mostly affects the accuracy of coordinate-time determinations. This article describes application of method of singular spectral analysis for forecasting the time series of the Earth’s rotation parameters. We propose modification of basic method, which aims at increasing forecast accuracy. We made comparative estimates for accuracy of world time forecasts calculated by the method of singular spectral analysis with similar forecasts by the International Earth Rotation Service. The expediency of using the method of singular spectral analysis for predicting intervals of more than 50 days is shown
[full text] [link to elibrary.ru]
Keywords: prediction, Earth rotation, spectral singular analysis
doi: 10.25743/ICT.2020.25.3.007
Author(s):
Grechkoseev Aleksandr Kuzmich
Dr.
Position: General Expert
Office: JSC Academician M.F. Reshetnev Information Satellite Systems
Address: 662972, Russia, Zheleznogorsk, 52, Lenin Avenue
Phone Office: (391) 976-44-69
E-mail: ak_grechkoseev@mail.ru
Tolstikov Aleksander Sergeevich
Dr.
Position: Head of department
Office: Siberian Metrological Scientific-Research Institute, Novosibirsk State Technical University
Address: 630004, Russia, Novosibirsk, 4,Dimitrova aven.
Phone Office: (383) 210-11-85
E-mail: tolstikov@corp.nstu.ru
Tissen Viktor Martynovich
PhD.
Position: Senior Research Scientist
Office: Siberian Metrological Scientific-Research Institute
Address: 630004, Russia, Novosibirsk, 4,Dimitrova aven.
Phone Office: (383) 210-14-94
E-mail: tissen.ksn@yandex.ru
Karmanov Vitaly Sergeevich
PhD. , Associate Professor
Position: Associate Professor
Office: Novosibirsk State Technical University
Address: 630073, Russia, Novosibirsk, Karl Marx Ave. 20
Phone Office: (383) 346-06-00
E-mail: karmanov@corp.nstu.ru
SPIN-code: 2790-9990Vaganova Anna Igorevna
Position: Student
Office: Novosibirsk State Technical University
Address: 630073, Russia, Novosibirsk, Karl Marx Ave. 20
E-mail: vaganova.2016@stud.nstu.ru
References:
1. Pasynok S.L. Determining the parameters of the Earth’s rotation. Al’manac of Modern Metrology. 2016; 3(8):269–323. (In Russ.)
2. Bartenev V.A., Grechkoseyev A.K., Kozorez L.A., Krassilchtchikov M.N. et al. Sovremennye i perspektivnye informatsionnye GNSS-tekhnologii v zadachakh vysokotochnoy navigatsii [Modern and perspective GNSS information technologies in high-precision navigation problems]. Eds. V.A. Bartenev, M.N. Krassilchtchikov. Moscow: Fizmatlit; 2014:192. (In Russ.)
3. Tolstikov A.S., Tissen V.M. Earth rotary parameters in GLONASS ephemeris time support objectives and outcomes of their prediction. Mir Izmereniy. 2012; (6):43–49. (In Russ.)
4. Tissen V.M., Tolstikov A.S., Balakhnenko A.Yu. Application of Earth rotation harmonic model for accurate forecasting of universal time in the interests of GNSS GLONASS. GEO-SIBIR. 2009; 1(2):290–294. (In Russ.)
5. International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) service international de la rotation terrestre. Available at: http://hpiers.obspm.fr/eoppc/bul/bulb/explanatory.html (accessed 15.01.2020).
6. International Earth rotation and reference systems service. Available at: https://www.iers.org/ IERS/EN/Links/IERS/IERS.html (accessed 15.01.2020).
7. Efimov V.M., Galaktionov Yu.K., SHushpanova N.F. Analiz i prognoz vremennykh ryadov metodom glavnykh komponent [Analysis and forecast of time series by the method of principal components]. Novosibirsk: Nauka; 1988: 70. (In Russ.)
8. Golyandina N., Korobeynikov A., Zhigljavsky Ą. Singular Spectrum Analysis with R. Berlin; Heidelberg: Springer; 2018: 272. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-57380-8
9. Golyandina N. Metod “Gusenitsa”-SSA: analiz vremennykh ryadov: Ucheb. posobie [Method “Caterpillar”-SSA: analysis of time series: Textbook]. SPb: Izd-vo SPbGU; 2004: 76. (In Russ.)
10. Gorshkov V.L., Miller N.O. The forecasting of earth orientation parameters by singular spectrum analysis. Izvestiya GAO RAN. 2009; 219(1):91–100. (In Russ.)
11. Balakhnenko A.Yu., Vaganova A.I., Karmanov V.S., Tissen V.M., Tolstikov A.S. Automation of the process of forecasting the parameters of the Earth’s rotation for the needs of ephemeris-time GLONASS support. Materials of the XXII Intern. Scientific Conf. “RESHETNEV READINGS”. November 11–15, 2019, Krasnoyarsk. Krasnoyarsk: Izd-vo SibGU; 2019; (2):141–143. Available at: https://disk.sibsau.ru/index.php/s/L9sHGlDFLhGZbCx (In Russ.)
12. Gentle J.E. Singular Value Factorization. §3.2.7 in Numerical Linear Algebra for Applications in Statistics. Berlin: Springer-Verlag; 1998: 102–103.
13. Nash J.C. The Singular-Value Decomposition and Its Use to Solve Least-Squares Problems. Ch. 3 in Compact Numerical Methods for Computers: Linear Algebra and Function Minimisation. 2nd ed. Bristol, England: Adam Hilger; 1990: 30–48.
14. Golyandina N.E. Method “Caterpillar”-SSA: prognoz vremennykh ryadov: Ucheb. posobie. [Method “Caterpillar”-SSA: forecast of time series: Textbook] SPb.: Izd-vo SPbGU; 2004: 52. (In Russ.) 15. Earth orientation data. Available at: https://www.iers.org/IERS/EN/DataProducts/EarthOrientationData/eop.html
Bibliography link:
Grechkoseev A.K., Tolstikov A.S., Tissen V.M., Karmanov V.S., Vaganova A.I. The modification of the singular spectral analysis basic method for improving the accuracy of forecasting the irregularity of the Earth rotation // Computational technologies. 2020. V. 25. ¹ 3. P. 54-65
|
