Journal "Computational Technologies"

Article information

2018 , Volume 23, № 4, p.95-109

Moskvichev V.V., Taseiko O.V., Ivanova U.S., Chernykh D.A.

Basic regional risks of territorial development for Siberian federal district

The purpose of the work is to analyze and evaluate individual strategic risks arising in the socio-natural-technogenic system of the industrial region by the example of the territories of the Siberian Federal District. We present a comparative assessment of actual and regulatory risk levels, taking into account the specific features of regional development of the territories. Partly this project is aimed to carry out comparative assessment of the actual and normative risk levels taking into account regional features of territory’s development.

Risk assessment methods are based on normative documents of the Russian Federation. The individual risks of deaths caused by technogenic emergency (the realized risks) were calculating with using MP 2-4-71-40 for some regions of Siberian Federal District. The cancerogenic and non-cancerogenic inhalation risks for population health are counted by according to methodology P 2.1.10.1920-04. The general methodology of territorial risks assessment includes techniques and models of anthropogenic risks assessment, creating of crisis databases, algorithms of mapping with using GIS-technologies.

Results. The assessment of inhalation risks was carried out for the cities of Krasnoyarsk region using the data of the state environmental monitoring network during from 2003 to 2014. The individual risks of death caused by technogenic emergency were calculated according to the data of EMERCOM for Krasnoyarsk, Omsk, Novosibirsk and Kemerovo regions during 2011-2015. Basic individual risks for Krasnoyarsk region are determined taking into account the specialty of regional development.

Findings. Assessment of the levels of environmental and human-made risks expands the possibilities for developing economic mechanisms for regulating the safety of regions and territories, including insurance of potentially dangerous objects and people living in areas of possible damage due to emergencies, which leads to a decrease in the volume of compensation payments from local government budgets. On the other hand, reducing the risks of emergencies provides more stable functioning of the economic potential and increases the competitive (investment) advantages of the region. A comprehensive assessment of the environmental condition and safety at the level of municipalities and industrial regions should be carried out on the basis of a systemic analysis of development risks, which will improve the level of efficiency of territorial management by implementing measures to reduce the actual values of the risks of territorial development.

[full text]
Keywords: basic risks of regional development, social-natural-technogenic system, individual strategic risks, normative risks

doi: 10.25743/ICT.2018.23.16506

Author(s):
Moskvichev Vladimir Viktorovich
Dr. , Professor
Position: Director
Office: Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies,Siberian Federal University
Address: 660049, Russia, Krasnoyarsk, Mira pr., 53
Phone Office: (391) 227-29-12
E-mail: krasn@ict.nsc.ru
SPIN-code: 9332-6468

Taseiko Olga Viktorovna
PhD. , Associate Professor
Position: Head of Chair
Office: Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies, Reshetnev Siberian State University of Science and Technology
Address: 660037, Russia, Krasnoyarsk, Office L-409, 410, 31, Krasnoyarsky Rabochy Av.
Phone Office: (923)-280-52-10
E-mail: taseiko@gmail.com
SPIN-code: 4032-4299

Ivanova Ulyana Sergeevna
Office: Institute of Computational Technologies SB RAS, Siberian Federal University
Address: 660041, Russia, Krasnoyarsk, Office L-409, 410, 31, Krasnoyarsky Rabochy Av.

Chernykh Daria Alexandrovna
Office: Institute of Computational Technologies SB RAS, Reshetnev Siberian State University of Science and Technology
Address: 660037, Russia, Krasnoyarsk, Office L-409, 410, 31, Krasnoyarsky Rabochy Av.

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Bibliography link:
Moskvichev V.V., Taseiko O.V., Ivanova U.S., Chernykh D.A. Basic regional risks of territorial development for Siberian federal district // Computational technologies. 2018. V. 23. № 4. P. 95-109